All qualifications and part qualifications registered on the National Qualifications Framework are public property. Thus the only payment that can be made for them is for service and reproduction. It is illegal to sell this material for profit. If the material is reproduced or quoted, the South African Qualifications Authority (SAQA) should be acknowledged as the source. 
SOUTH AFRICAN QUALIFICATIONS AUTHORITY 
REGISTERED UNIT STANDARD THAT HAS PASSED THE END DATE: 
Use of probability to measure uncertainty 
SAQA US ID  UNIT STANDARD TITLE  
262537  Use of probability to measure uncertainty  
ORIGINATOR  
SGB Statistics  
PRIMARY OR DELEGATED QUALITY ASSURANCE FUNCTIONARY  
  
FIELD  SUBFIELD  
Field 10  Physical, Mathematical, Computer and Life Sciences  Mathematical Sciences  
ABET BAND  UNIT STANDARD TYPE  PRE2009 NQF LEVEL  NQF LEVEL  CREDITS 
Undefined  Regular  Level 5  Level TBA: Pre2009 was L5  8 
REGISTRATION STATUS  REGISTRATION START DATE  REGISTRATION END DATE  SAQA DECISION NUMBER  
Passed the End Date  Status was "Reregistered" 
20180701  20230630  SAQA 06120/18  
LAST DATE FOR ENROLMENT  LAST DATE FOR ACHIEVEMENT  
20240630  20270630 
In all of the tables in this document, both the pre2009 NQF Level and the NQF Level is shown. In the text (purpose statements, qualification rules, etc), any references to NQF Levels are to the pre2009 levels unless specifically stated otherwise. 
This unit standard does not replace any other unit standard and is not replaced by any other unit standard. 
PURPOSE OF THE UNIT STANDARD 
The skills, values and knowledge reflected in this unit standard are required by people in the field of statistics. Learners should be able to contribute to a quality hierarchy of skills required to provide quality services in statistics by using probability to measure uncertainty.
A person credited with this unit standard is able to: 
LEARNING ASSUMED TO BE IN PLACE AND RECOGNITION OF PRIOR LEARNING 
UNIT STANDARD RANGE 
N/A 
Specific Outcomes and Assessment Criteria: 
SPECIFIC OUTCOME 1 
Explain different approaches used to define probability. 
ASSESSMENT CRITERIA 
ASSESSMENT CRITERION 1 
Historical perspectives of the approaches to probability are discussed to motivate the rationale behind the approaches. 
ASSESSMENT CRITERION 2 
Different conceptions of probability are discussed to show the strengths and weaknessess of each one of them. 
ASSESSMENT CRITERION 3 
The appropriate approaches to calculating probability are identified for a given context. 
ASSESSMENT CRITERION RANGE 
Appropriate approaches include classical and frequentist and subjective approaches. 
ASSESSMENT CRITERION 4 
The concept of mutually exclusive events is distinguished from the concept of independent events in order to provide a firm foundation in probability. 
SPECIFIC OUTCOME 2 
Use Venn diagrams to explain the laws of probability. 
ASSESSMENT CRITERIA 
ASSESSMENT CRITERION 1 
The three axioms of probability are stated as the basic building blocks of the theory of probability. 
ASSESSMENT CRITERION 2 
The laws of probability are derived from the axioms using Venn diagrams. 
ASSESSMENT CRITERION 3 
The law of total probability is stated and justified using a Venn diagram. 
SPECIFIC OUTCOME 3 
Calculate probability of events using the laws of probability. 
ASSESSMENT CRITERIA 
ASSESSMENT CRITERION 1 
Probabilities of unions and intersection of events are calculated for both independent and dependent events. 
ASSESSMENT CRITERION 2 
The law of total probability is used to calculate the probability of an event given a partitioning of the sample space. 
ASSESSMENT CRITERION 3 
Bayes' theorem is used to calculate conditional probability to solve problems on conditional events. 
ASSESSMENT CRITERION 4 
Appropriate probability law is selected to solve a specific problem. 
ASSESSMENT CRITERION 5 
The fundamental principle of counting is explained in order to perform correct calculations of probabilities for finite sample spaces. 
SPECIFIC OUTCOME 4 
Interpret probability contextually and explain the role of probability in life tables. 
ASSESSMENT CRITERIA 
ASSESSMENT CRITERION 1 
The probabilities zero and one of events are interpreted in terms of the context provided. 
ASSESSMENT CRITERION 2 
The probability is interpreted contextually in relation to the interpretation of pvalues to reflect the logic of statistical inference. 
ASSESSMENT CRITERION 3 
The use of probability in constructing life tables is explained to illustrate an important application of probability. 
UNIT STANDARD ACCREDITATION AND MODERATION OPTIONS 
The assessment will be governed by the policies and guidelines of the relevant Education and Training Quality Assuror (ETQA) that has jurisdiction over this field of learning.
The assessor will (at the very least) be accredited and have a relevant qualification and be a subject matter expert in this learning area and at least have 3 years experience in the skills specific area, post qualification. The learner can be assessed against this unit standard to obtain credits or as part of an integrated assessment for a qualification. 
UNIT STANDARD ESSENTIAL EMBEDDED KNOWLEDGE 
Names, functions and locations of:
Purpose of processes and procedures of: Attributes, properties, characteristics related to: Cause and effect, implications of: Procedures and techniques: Regulations, legislation, agreements, policies: Theory, rules, laws, principles: Relationships, systems: 
UNIT STANDARD DEVELOPMENTAL OUTCOME 
N/A 
UNIT STANDARD LINKAGES 
N/A 
Critical Crossfield Outcomes (CCFO): 
UNIT STANDARD CCFO IDENTIFYING 
Identifying and solving problems in which responses display that responsible decisions using critical and creative thinking have been made when:

UNIT STANDARD CCFO WORKING 
Working effectively with others as a member of a team, group, organisation, and community during:

UNIT STANDARD CCFO ORGANISING 
Organising and managing oneself and one's activities responsibly and effectively when:

UNIT STANDARD CCFO COLLECTING 
Collecting, analysing, organising and critically evaluating information to better understand and explain:

UNIT STANDARD CCFO COMMUNICATING 
Communicating effectively using visual, mathematical and/or language skills in the modes of oral and/or written persuasion when:

UNIT STANDARD CCFO SCIENCE 
Using science and technology effectively and critically, showing responsibility towards the environment and health of others when:

UNIT STANDARD CCFO DEMONSTRATING 
Demonstrating an understanding of the world as a set of related systems by recognising that problemsolving contexts do not exist in isolation when:

UNIT STANDARD ASSESSOR CRITERIA 
N/A 
REREGISTRATION HISTORY 
As per the SAQA Board decision/s at that time, this unit standard was Reregistered in 2012; 2015. 
UNIT STANDARD NOTES 
N/A 
QUALIFICATIONS UTILISING THIS UNIT STANDARD: 
ID  QUALIFICATION TITLE  PRE2009 NQF LEVEL  NQF LEVEL  STATUS  END DATE  PRIMARY OR DELEGATED QA FUNCTIONARY  
Core  65649  National Certificate: Official Statistics  Level 5  Level TBA: Pre2009 was L5  Passed the End Date  Status was "Reregistered" 
20230630  PSETA 
PROVIDERS CURRENTLY ACCREDITED TO OFFER THIS UNIT STANDARD: 
This information shows the current accreditations (i.e. those not past their accreditation end dates), and is the most complete record available to SAQA as of today. Some Primary or Delegated Quality Assurance Functionaries have a lag in their recording systems for provider accreditation, in turn leading to a lag in notifying SAQA of all the providers that they have accredited to offer qualifications and unit standards, as well as any extensions to accreditation end dates. The relevant Primary or Delegated Quality Assurance Functionary should be notified if a record appears to be missing from here. 
NONE 
All qualifications and part qualifications registered on the National Qualifications Framework are public property. Thus the only payment that can be made for them is for service and reproduction. It is illegal to sell this material for profit. If the material is reproduced or quoted, the South African Qualifications Authority (SAQA) should be acknowledged as the source. 